I've got a theory, I'd like your opinion if I'm out in left field.
It's clear to me at least that Hillary Clinton has too much baggage to be president. There I've said it. I also think her running right now has nothing with her trying to be president, it has everything to do with defining the message.
If you've been watching, what has she been doing? She's been going out to community colleges, making the argument for fair wages, access to education and doing very basic centrist things.
Now think about what this does to the political landscape.
If you're a Republican presidential candidate, what's the ONE thing you can not do... Agree with Hillary. It's political suicide. Automatically every position you have, has to be to the right of whatever stake Hillary puts in the ground, forcing that candidate to take more extreme positions. "Mrs. Clinton wants to make college more affordable... How absurd!" Try selling that?
Every attack against Hillary now has to be either ad hominem, focused on her time in the state department or on her policies.
If you're trying to win that critical 18-35 demographic you're really backed into a corner. You can attack her directly, which looks petty, you can attack her time as Secretary of State, which doesn't get any traction, or you can go after her social agenda which that demographic agrees with thus losing their support.
There's also the fact that the republicans fielding so many candidates so early are already starting to hit up their donor base. Now, while the Koch brothers have infinite funds, it's only a matter of time before the average donor is just tapped out.
The Republicans are going to spend big money attacking Hillary, but by my estimation, this is just throwing money away.
Do I have any idea who the "Real" candidate is? Not a clue.